![]() ![]() ![]() banks have tilted lending to the housing market. But a factor that has gained attention: the way U.K. The causes of the U.K.'s productivity slowdown are hotly debated, and include an aging population, tighter regulation and Brexit. Key Developments Around the World What's Killing Productivity? Some Think It's the Banks San Francisco's once thriving hotel market is suffering its worst stretch in at least 15 years, pummeled by the same forces that have emptied out the city's office towers and closed many retail stores. Hotel Owners Start to Write Off San Francisco as Business Nosedives ![]() Wall Street is instead laying more bets that most American borrowers will sail through. Inflation, slowing growth and rising interest rates often spell trouble for people with car loans and credit-card debt. Economy Wall Street Firms Up Bets on U.S. The natural-language processing tool puts a 50% probability on the Fed raising rates by a quarter percentage point Wednesday, which is more hawkish than some economists and market players. ![]() Pro Take: JPMorgan's Fedspeak Evaluator Is Unsure About This Week's Rate Decision By Bob FernandezĪ new tool from JPMorgan Chase that scans and scores speeches of Federal Reserve officials to help predict the direction of interest rates says it is a tossup whether the central bank will raise rates again this week. Inflation expectations for the year ahead in the New York Fed's consumer survey declined to 4.1%, the lowest reading since May 2021. One of the biggest fears of Federal Reserve policymakers looks to be easing : Americans' worries over price pressures waned in May. That would be well below the recent peak of 9.1% last June and down from April's 4.9% increase.įalling Inflation Expectations a Reprieve for Fed Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal estimated that consumer prices rose 4% in May from a year earlier. There is a good chance May inflation was less than half of last year's peak but remained double what Federal Reserve officials would like to see. Inflation Has Likely Been Cut in Half but Is Still Too High The Labor Department is set to report on inflation on Tuesday morning, offering the latest sign of how much progress officials have made in cooling price pressures-and how much more they have to do. Top News Fed Rate Projections Could Rise to Underscore Inflation Anxietiesįederal Reserve officials' concerns about stubbornly high inflation could lead them to signal that they are prepared to lift interest rates again this year even if they hold them steady on Wednesday. It puts a 50% probability on the Fed lifting rates by a quarter percentage point on Wednesday. Meanwhile, JPMorgan Chase launched a natural-language processing tool in April that scores speeches of Fed officials to help predict their moves on interest rates. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal estimated consumer prices rose 4% last month from a year earlier, down from April's 4.9% increase. An important data point for them will be the consumer-price index report for May, which will be released at 8:30 a.m. Federal Reserve officials might opt to pause interest rate rises this week to assess the effect of previous increases while penciling in an additional hike amid economic strength and inflation well above the central bank's 2% target. Consumer-Price Index Out Today as Fed Meets Fedspeak Tech Tool Points to Tossup on Rate Decision By James Christie ![]()
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